I actually think it’s highly likely the war will end this year. Here are a few reasons for that.

• Ukraine lost its military industrial capacity and isn’t able to replace weapons and armor they lose in fighting.
• Western weapons come nowhere close to replacing what Ukraine is losing in the field.
• Ukraine is also suffering tremendous losses in terms of manpower, and this is simply not sustainable. It’s not possible to train new soldiers at the rate they’re losing them, and they’re running out of people military age who are able to be drafted into the army.
• Donbas defenses were built up over eight years, and this is why it took a long time to break through them. Now that Russia broke through, the pace of fighting will increase rapidly and we’re likely to see more maneuver warfare with Russia quickly taking territory. The troops that were tied up at Donbas will also be able to redeploy to other places.
• Russia will absolutely be doing offensives on Kharkiv, Odessa, and Nikolaev. They’ve pretty much said as much at this point. The reason they were holding off is that they had to gain control of Donbas first. Russia is operating with a limited force in Ukraine.
• The economy in Ukraine is collapsing, they’ve already defaulted on their foreign debt, and hyperinflation is looking likely. The west is currently footing the bill for pretty much all the government and military spending and salaries. Food and energy shortages are also becoming a serious problem.
• The west is obviously having huge economic problems of their own, and we’re seeing support for Ukraine collapsing. Once the west funding gets pulled things will unravel very quickly.

The goal of war is to bring the enemy’s capabilities down so much they have no choice but to accept your demands (loosely paraphrased from Clausewitz). You don’t need to go anywhere beyond that.

If Ukraine does not want to negotiate, Russia has no choice but to keep committing more and more resources and prolonging the war so that Ukraine will be forced to negotiate.

In this model the two opposing forces then commit more resources to counter the resources their enemy brought, and that’s how conflicts snowball and escalate.

The problem is it’s so difficult to find actual information – and I mean that from both sides. They keep casualties and advances pretty secret. And on the pro-Ukraine side, which is all western media essentially, I have no idea where Ukraine even is at right now. Last I heard there’s no more negotiations, it’s a mess trying to find info in the first place.

Only thing I can tell you for sure is there is no war in the history of ever that was announced would be over in a couple months and then actually was over in that time. They always say it’s gonna be quick and easy, but it never is.

recently it’s been a tough sell trying to let anti-war family understand why Russia is at war. I mean we agree that we don’t want to see more Ukrainian civilians die and we don’t want the working class to be put in danger, like the stress that Zaporizhzhiya plant workers must feel. Overall we agree that this war hurts the working class but it’s tough to bridge that gap and look for a solution which saves as many proletarians as possible. Idk what do y’all think. I support Donbass and Russia fighting Nazis is based but I mean part of me feels really bad about what’s happening there daily and that it’s so drawn out and taking so many lives. This sucks, I wish Donbass was free already

Russia is irresponsible for letting it go on this long but the west using this as profit making bonanza and Ukraines elite willing to fight to seemingly the last child is grossly inadequate and I think perhaps Ukraine should be annexed but I doubt Russias goals haven’t been met yet and war is just not good (I know based take but) so a fast solution is better than a good solution

The goal, I would argue is a takeover of various high profit industries that there are - gas transit hubs, grain transit hubs, etc. This tracks with the apparent method of precision missile strikes - the infrastructure is desired to be intact or repairable.

As for why it is so slow and undecided, don’t forget that modern Russia is capitalist and thus is subject to the usual shortcomings of the system. Corruption, overblown budgets, etc. It’s very much possible that the level of preparation on paper looked much better than it was in reality.

Additionally, it certainly looks like the government has underestimated the sheer psychosis and indoctrination of the population (and military). Shit like tossing molotovs at passing tanks, or distributing assault rifles to Teroborona dummies, or the absolute insanity that is shelling a nuclear power plant. It seems that the government expected a quick and clean victory, the kind yanks show on TV (yes I know that isn’t true).

As for how it will go, I cannot say. If we’re somewhat lucky, they’ll find a Kadyrov like figure - a well known local figure who would switch sides - and establish a new government, specifically of locals that would be loyal. I suppose you could call it comprador?

Otherwise I agree with the other comrades. It’s not going to be fun in the upcoming years here in Russia. The international psychosis will only grow. The internal psychosis will only grow. China won’t jump in to save our Laovai asses and everyone else doesn’t care.

Watch New Atlas near daily updates on the conflict. He’s on YouTube and elsewhere. For those of you asking, “WhYs iT TAkINg sO LoNG!?” he goes into great detail about Ukraine’s defenses and Russia’s long term strategy.

It’s a shitshow. A part of me still thinks none of this is even happening and it’s all a big show.

Ukraine has been trying to make this a global conflict for months (atrocity propaganda, alleged chemical weapon attacks, false flags, the Nuclear plant standoff) and I’m kinda shocked that America hasn’t just stepped in yet. Considering all the money and guns we’re sending over, this is clearly a big deal for us. But it’s interesting, the longer this goes on the more and more overt it becomes that Zelensky is both corrupt and actively prolonging the war for money.

Russia is genuinely fucked no matter what they do. If they pull out, the nazis are going to rebuild better than ever because of the obscene amounts of aid they’ve been getting, and the Ukraine pfps will probably start calling for a counter-invasion. But if they stay, it’s a money sink and their reputation in the west will continue going down the tubes. Caitlin Johnstone said it the best “Grown adults think Russia invaded Ukraine for no reason or just because their evil” the levels of propaganda surrounding this whole mess is almost surreal.

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It’s quite obvious that Russia aims to:

• take over at least eastern Ukraine, where the people are mostly pro-Russian, and most resources are concentrated.

• destroy the military capabilities of Ukraine. A war of attrition makes sense with this goal in mind, particarly frequent strikes at headquarters and military industrial facilities.

• dismantle/weaken the neonazi military groups that are participating in the fighting. Strikes and assaults against their positions seem to be a priority.

• destabilize Ukraine economically and politically. Prolonging the war as much as possible achieves this. After 6 months and Ukraine is already facing hyperinflation and huge debts. The people are losing faith in the government. The West is quickly losing interest in supporting Ukraine. Destabilization would mean that if Ukraine keeps existing, it’ll be easier to control politically by Russia.

• wait for winter to make living in Ukraine that much more difficult. Winter would also greatly weaken the position of Ukrainian armed force, which is already suffering from supply issues. I think Russia hopes that desertions and draft evasion will ramp up.

• damage the economies of the EU countries and create issues for NATO. The EU is hoping for a quick end to the war, preferably before winter, so they can start lifting sanctions and resume the gas flow. If this doesn’t happen then the EU is more likely to lift the sanctions anyway and pressure Ukraine to enter negotiations. Long-term, damage to the EU would mean less meddling in the Russian geopolitical space and possibly reluctance to keep following US foreign policy so closely.

• increase Russia’s global influence. The more damage to EU and the US, the more able is Russia to swoop in and take advantage of the vacuum around the world. We are already seeing this in North Africa, where Russia has taken advantage of the retreat of Western neocolonial forces (e.g. In Mali). Russian actions have also attracted support from most of Asia. BRICS has been strengthened more in the last 6 months than since its founding. Being willing to resist the US giant and showing that it can maintain the fight long-term has attracted many oppressed countries to the Russian banner.

• either force Ukraine to the negotiating table, where Russia will demand guarantees against joining NATO and recognizing the annexation of the occupied territories, or take over the whole of Ukraine. Either goal becomes more and more achievable the longer the fighting is kept up.

Also, keep in mind that Russia wishes to keep its own attrition to a minimum and it’s currently facing the most defensible line of Ukraine, with a minimal but superior Russian force. Russia is basically performing a siege, waiting for the Ukrainian forces to weaken enough so it can initiate an assault.

Starting to think the demands of this war will evolve into a full annexation agenda on Russia’s part. The chances of a landlocked rump-state Ukraine seems less and less likely as the conflict rages on and the stakes get higher and higher. Relations with the west have reached an unfixable point, so Russia needs to grab as much land and resources as possible to leverage against renewed aggression from them. Seizing Ukrainian oil and grain gives the Russian state a great deal more leverage when the time comes to cut a deal and seek new, tentative diplomatic relationships with European powers. At bare minimum, a Russian stranglehold on oil is likely to keep the Germans keen, who possess the economic muscle and influence to hold the rest of Europe back. With recent American efforts to squeeze Russia out of the European energy market causing all this current malarkey, the German state will almost certainly be mindful that they have a much easier time keeping the lights on trading with Russia rather than America.

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