I keep asking this as information develops and the year goes on. What do you guys think?
Living standards for the average person and wealth inequality starts to look like the more capitalist countries in Central and South America right now
East Asians potentially becoming the most common target of hate crimes, in absolute numbers despite being one of the smallest minorities in the country. If not the most, then hate crimes will continue to dramatically and exponentially rise either way
South Asians start to get targeted more because Indian immigrants will rapidly grow to be larger and larger percentage of immigrants and they generally do very well here (I think they’re already highest earning ethnicity in USA)
People’s knowledge and understanding of geopolitics and class conflict becomes even more twisted and weirdly incorrect as they recognize capitalism is the problem but the growing propaganda machine stops them from the correct analysis and mindset to be had
People’s intersectional framework become simultaneously more and less woke, as they recognize white supremacy is a problem but continue to fail to identify even the slightly veiled forms, like anti-Russia/China/Iran/DPRK propaganda, and rising white fragility/insecurity in the face of a rising China and prospering Indians in the USA
Full agree but with an addendum:
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Latinos continue to rise in population and income levels from internal growth rather than immigration, increasing ethnic contradictions with whites who will increasingly fall into Great Replacement conspiracy holes.
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Black people will continue to be left out of political discussions because no one wants to talk to them. Democrats continue to harness their revolutionary energy for votes, but lose control as the police state becomes more openly violent and collective memory increases mistrust with the establishment. The majority of black socialists become maoists as a result, because other groups refuse to adjust their recruiting strategies.
Interesting, why do you believe latinos will rise in population (as a percentage I’m assuming) from internal growth? The way I see it lower income correlates with birth rate and I think latinos aren’t so much below the other races that it would make a large percentage shift, especially in the face of rising immigration from India
I would’ve talked a lot about climate refugees from central and south america but they wouldn’t be US citizens which is what the question asked about
I think that’s from official statistics by the us govt but I don’t have time to look it up right now. They’re at least projecting increased wealth. But yeah, I would agree that immigrants who aren’t citizens or who don’t have legal status will affect things in a way that’s not in line with official docs. But border security keeps getting more funding so it’ll probably taper off when the US becomes less attractive as a destination.
Most US Latinos are very conservative/libertarian (i.e pro- I got mines , fuck y’all). They support patriarchy, fascism, and all the other capitalist things. This is why they are gaining wealth.
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Good points!
One thing I’m curious about: how many U.S. Americans will try to emigrate during this time?
I’m thinking tons, but that is hard-core biased because I’m already thinking of leaving LOL.
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this would be my guess too
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I’m hoping it balkanizes relatively peacefully.
I think even China will help preserve the US against a violent breakup… because the biggest threat to humanity if the US balkanizes depends on who controls their nukes after a secession.
Has any balkanization (hate the term tbh) in history ever been peaceful?
I 100% agree. You can demilitarize the US and sanction us and everything, but as an American I kinda draw the line at Balkanization. I don’t want to have intense animosity towards neighbors that have pretty similar class policies. And the process can’t happen without civilian deaths and worker rights being impeded. I’m even for giving lands back to Mexico and making more land the property of indigenous peoples, but if we balkanize the US, what stops Nevada from getting rid of a minimum wage or all taxation above a certain income? What stops Texas from fulfilling its dream of being a patriarchal white supremacist EcoFascist state? What will happen to California? The place that will inevitably take the place of Neoliberal “progressive” culture with backwards class analysis? The US is awful now, but the few things that are being held together by thread at this point are kinda important to stop us from leaning into Texan wishes of a White Christian paradise. Basically it’s like US foreign policy, just because a place is bad now, regime change and splitting people up into regional groups won’t make it any better
if we balkanize the US, what stops Nevada from getting rid of a minimum wage or all taxation above a certain income? What stops Texas from fulfilling its dream of being a patriarchal white supremacist EcoFascist state? What will happen to California? The place that will inevitably take the place of Neoliberal “progressive” culture with backwards class analysis?
Texas and the rest of the red states are already succeeding at establishing a fascist state, except instead of it being contained in Alabama or whatever, the rest of the US has to follow along too. Balkanization is unironically the best thing that can happen to America at this point. There will never be a communist America. Its very existence is imperialist/settler colonialist. But there is a potential for a communist New Afrika or Cascadia or whatever republics form post-Balkanization.
if we balkanize the US, what stops Nevada from getting rid of a minimum wage or all taxation above a certain income? What stops Texas from fulfilling its dream of being a patriarchal white supremacist EcoFascist state? What will happen to California? The place that will inevitably take the place of Neoliberal “progressive” culture with backwards class analysis?
As long as they don’t have nukes (so they can’t wage war with impunity in a multipolar or BRICS/China-led world), let them. They’ll collapse in their own time. Yeah it’ll suck for people there, but they’ll be able to do something about it, unlike the people on the other side of the world that the US fucks with.
That’s a pretty good point, the nukes are the main issue. Anything that stops the US from participating in foreign policy of any kind is worth it but not at the expense of nukes flying
This is why I figure the people here will never be able to gain control over the state. There are just too goddamn many life-exterminating weapons of every sort and the chance that some random shithead from Alabama or Glassgow could snag one during the struggle is unacceptable to the rest of the world either.
Let them nuke themselves in peace
It’s not just nukes, not to mention blowing up a nuke or two has ramifications for the rest of the world as well considering fallout and whatnot.
I mean if you haven’t noticed some of these states are basically going ahead with those plans anyway and getting away with it
That’s true, and tbh there’s no structural change within the US to change it. I just wonder what a Balkanized US would because people made good points that any weaker version of the US is a better scenario for the world. But I wonder if it would be a civil war or another country involved. I’d welcome both in the end if it meant shutting down all the military bases around the world
California is heading towards being its own country at this point. We aren’t really down with all the crazy redneck shit going on.
I agree, but historically USA was founded on the ideals of federation. The UN and EU are founded on similar principles. And while none of them actually function ideally, I still believe it is the best way to go. Freedom of movement must be conserved, which as an outsider, I’m led to believe EU is pretty good at. Unlike USa, where the Interstate Compact let’s you get fucked for say owing a ton of fines to another state’s motor vehicle agency.
But ultimately, the tyranny of the minority is worse when for example Texas controls public schoolbooks, the patent courts, and abortion ideology via the supreme court. If they were separated a little more via federation they might not weild as much power over all the other states. Same for Delaware, Nevada, California, etc.
This is the key. Also the US doesn’t just suppress socialist progress within, it does so aggressively abroad. Anything that reduces its ability to do that both globally and nationally is a good thing. I’m so over clutching at pearls about the human cost of long-term positive change in the US when they’re murdering people daily around the world. The only way that makes sense is if one values white lives over others.
Czechoslovakia is the only one I can think of.
Batshit Baptist theocracies with nukes salivating to start the end times they jerk off about
looking forward to reporting all the facists in my area to the authorities and absorbing some of their land
We’ll vote even harder.
Anyone see a civil war in the USA coming? I don’t know. Looks like Americans love fooling themselves into believing their system works FOR them, ‘democracy’, etc. What will be the last straw?
I don’t believe so. What would the two sides fight for? What would be the catalyst? What would they have to gain? What would make Americans risk dying for to fight each other that badly?
I can’t find an answer for any of these
Fascists have a lot of murder curiosity, albeit here they are even more cowardly than elsewhere. That being said I would already say there is a rising pattern of fascist violence, in between violence against black people, asians, queer/trans, homeless, hell even a couple shootings because people told them to put on a mask. For a real “hot” civil war to take place in America the entire country would have to deteriorate and collapse IMO, if it happened I wouldn’t bet any time super soon
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I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but there is an obvious split in the interests of the US bourgeoisie. This has become visible to absolutely everyone during the Trump years. What would make Yanks fight and kill each other? Material interests and devastation that demarcate that split. A very large part of the population on either side is already destitute and feeling increasing pressure on their personal wealth and futures. Hopes/promises to retain or improve upon that or at least the fear of further decline should be enough of an incentive for enough people.
Again, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Especially not as a Civil War 2.0 with 2 standing armies along clear borders fighting each other in pitched battles. I also don’t see one catalytic event to cause such a thing. But massive contradictions that could cause something in the future definitely do exist imo
Racial wars. The “mighty illuminated white cishet followers of God” vs non-Christians, Non-white, non-Cishet.
It will be also, very similar to the last Civil War the country had, and even for similar reasons.
What would make Americans risk dying for to fight each other that badly?
That’s an interesting topic. Is the cult of individualism as powerful in the USA as the media and the internet lead us to believe?
It’s pretty powerful and starts at a young age. You’re taught to mistrust everyone outside of your immediate family, including neighbors and community leaders. I’m still trying to un-learn and develop an increased sense of community because it is so damn foreign to me. And the more shitty individual people I deal with, the harder it is to do so (seems counterintuitive but alas…). A lot of the non-U.S. west has become more and more individualized over the years due to the immense propaganda apparatus. Just once I’d like to be part of a community and feel accepted inside of it.
Thank you for sharing. That is exactly what I meant - with this kind of alienation, can you see people banding together in significant numbers for prolonged periods of time?
In regards to Americans? No I absolutely cannot. I truly wish I could say otherwise.
More likely is that anarcho-mad-max shit where you have some christian fundamentalists, gangs, a few small neighborhood groups, and a whole bunch of individuals scrounging to survive spread throughout the country. A lot of suffering and death and blame thrown around and people willing to align with and do anything for someone who directs their fear and anger.
Now that I type this out, a second civil war would probably be less destructive for the average citizen overall than for the country to collapse and balkanize over the next decade or two or three. But in any case the current state as it is so truly evil and destructive that I don’t know a strong enough word for it, it must be stopped. The citizenry is at best useful idiots for an empire of lies and they need reeducated at the minimum. At worst the citizenry cheers on the capitalism, exceptionalism, and endless war.
A big part of the reason I decided to give up everything (not that I had much) to emigrate was because I realized deep in my core that it would never get better and that eventually shit would hit the fan and I wouldn’t want to be caught in the middle of it. That was in 2010, and look at everything now.
I doubt it will lead to war in the next 50 years. Just a long, slow, balkanization as the fed dissolves itself to save resources for war, and individual state policies become both de facto and de jure domestic policy. The US simply becomes a military alliance, utility grids slowly isolate into state borders with weird purchasing agreements happening across state lines. The Fed’s new policy of increasing industry at home will subtly backfire as states obtain some form of resource and economic independence. Wages will continue to depress via inflation. Travel through some states may be restricted in the name of screening for illegal immigrants at first before applying to all travelers through that region. States continue to increase the size of their local guard and militias. City budgets continue to allocate the majority of funds to cops.
War wouldn’t be useful to States until such time that resources can’t cross easily over state borders. If, for example, Arkansas were blocking Utahan uranium from entering Illinois for their power plants, Illinois would then begin putting out propaganda about the negative characteristics of Arkansans like we currently do with Russians, probably emphasizing their backward ‘red-state’ mentality. But that alone wouldn’t be enough to cause conflict, the economic side would be of prime importance.
Normalized lawfare fascism.
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A big defeat is when this country goes full fascist.
Already is
True, I just meant they will ramp it up.
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I can see a very shitty UBI cone into place with austerity measures and welfare cuts. I say this because the ruling class is in favor and plenty of libs and fake lefties fall for it as “FrEe MoNeY tO SpEnD oN WHaT u NeeD” which is basically just trickle-up economics lmao. Billionaires speak highly of it because they know that free money from the government always means heavy subsidies. Since when did the US gov start handing out money and the Corporations and big business DIDN’T stick their palms out and take a bit extra from the candy jar? Also, I can definitely see the news media becoming even more exploitative and false. I think that maybe Unionization will go up a bit in the next coming years due to the way that things have been going, but as always I predict a super fuck up in global capital that may call forth a Fascist to the US presidency in the late 2030s. Just a guess
I can see a very shitty UBI cone into place with austerity measures and welfare cuts. I say this because the ruling class is in favor and plenty of libs and fake lefties fall for it as “FrEe MoNeY tO SpEnD oN WHaT u NeeD”
If by very shitty UBI you mean UBI in name only. Actually they aren’t even keeping the name. Mayors For A Guaranteed Income are putting out pilot programs which are just welfare for the same voting blocs that have been targeted by all previous welfare. Their official policy is that AGI (notably not UBI), is something that must be in addition to existing welfare programs.
This is in contrast to UBI which has been written about by aristocrats since before the industrial revolution. Basic Income quite literally means enough to pay for food and housing. UBI, the real thing, will never happen without revolution.
Idk, AGI sounds kinda sus, it’s in conjunction with government welfare programs today, not so sure about how that fares when capital declines
There will probably a massive decline in the relative standards of living in the Western world.
This is what I expect. And if we think people are batshit crazy right now, just wait until the world gangs up on the US and sanctions the US citizens. They’ll want to go full nuclear in a heartbeat.
It’s almost like the US has the world hostage at gunpoint, except they’ve already shot people to prove they’d really do it. I actually just very recently learned about the US nuking our atmosphere and wanting to nuke the moon. They literally do not give a fuck about humanity.
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Bad things.
Lots of bad things.
Hopefully glassed
