But here’s the truly bitter truth: In broad brush strokes at least, the most-likely post-war settlement is pretty much the same as the settlement that was on offer before the bloodletting began in earnest on Feb. 24. While Putin was the one who pulled the trigger that fateful day, and thus bears full moral responsibility for all that has happened since, there are many others who could have made different choices in the run-up to the war. Different choices could have resulted in a pre-war settlement that would have been almost indistinguishable from the most likely post-war settlement, minus only the untold death and destruction visited on Ukraine these past weeks and months. In that sense, and only in that limited sense, there’s plenty of blame to go around.
A whole slew of articles like this have come out from a lot of mainstream outlets this week. It’s a complete 180 from the narrative they’ve been running for like the whole year now. I wonder if western intelligence agencies are expecting a collapse of the Ukrainian military once Bakhmut falls. So now they’re starting to reshape the narrative in a panic.
Do you have some of them at hand per chance? I was pretty busy this week and this one is the first I’ve read so far.
Certainly seems that way though. With the mega panicky giant aid packages, every red line crossed within days and the developments on the ground it seems like the UAF might not have that much more left. I still don’t believe in some spectacular Russian offensive to smash it all, but they’re obviously preparing and shaping the line on every important front and are creating opportunities of multiple encirlcements. Marinka, Ugledar, Seversk, Bakhmut and even Avdeevka and Niu York all look precarious.
Would be the turnaround of the century though after 2022, if they really start preparing the public for a collapse like this.
Also, a few very interesting reports have just come out from RAND, CSIS, and IMF. These reports state that the war is not going as planned, that US military industrial complex is unable to keep up with the demand, and that sanctions have failed to produce the intended effect.
Also the adults are starting to realize this war has convinced non-Westerners to start disassociate with the West particularly alternatives to the dollar and SWIFT system.
I think that’s the thing that scares people who understand how economics work in US the most. Russian trade with China and India is already a huge chunk of the economy that’s become dedollarized, and turns out that Russia is pretty central for commodity trade for lots of other countries as well. Once the channels of trade outside the dollar are established there is no incentive to go back. Any countries that’s not a vassal of the US now has a strong incentive to trade outside the dollar and, thanks to the economic war US started, now has the means to do so.
US being able to print dollars whenever they want is largely premised on the idea that there is always global demand for dollars. And if this demand starts dipping that becomes a huge problem for servicing the insane national debt US built up.
I also expect that this is the end of siege warfare US has been able to use so effectively via sanctions. US no longer has the ability to coerce countries through economic violence.
Surprising article tbh
Not that wrong
A whole slew of articles like this have come out from a lot of mainstream outlets this week. It’s a complete 180 from the narrative they’ve been running for like the whole year now. I wonder if western intelligence agencies are expecting a collapse of the Ukrainian military once Bakhmut falls. So now they’re starting to reshape the narrative in a panic.
Do you have some of them at hand per chance? I was pretty busy this week and this one is the first I’ve read so far.
Certainly seems that way though. With the mega panicky giant aid packages, every red line crossed within days and the developments on the ground it seems like the UAF might not have that much more left. I still don’t believe in some spectacular Russian offensive to smash it all, but they’re obviously preparing and shaping the line on every important front and are creating opportunities of multiple encirlcements. Marinka, Ugledar, Seversk, Bakhmut and even Avdeevka and Niu York all look precarious.
Would be the turnaround of the century though after 2022, if they really start preparing the public for a collapse like this.
yeah, a few I saw recently were admitting that both the hot war and the sanctions regime are failing
Also, a few very interesting reports have just come out from RAND, CSIS, and IMF. These reports state that the war is not going as planned, that US military industrial complex is unable to keep up with the demand, and that sanctions have failed to produce the intended effect.
Seems like adults in US are starting to sound the alarm that US needs a way out.
Also the adults are starting to realize this war has convinced non-Westerners to start disassociate with the West particularly alternatives to the dollar and SWIFT system.
I think that’s the thing that scares people who understand how economics work in US the most. Russian trade with China and India is already a huge chunk of the economy that’s become dedollarized, and turns out that Russia is pretty central for commodity trade for lots of other countries as well. Once the channels of trade outside the dollar are established there is no incentive to go back. Any countries that’s not a vassal of the US now has a strong incentive to trade outside the dollar and, thanks to the economic war US started, now has the means to do so.
US being able to print dollars whenever they want is largely premised on the idea that there is always global demand for dollars. And if this demand starts dipping that becomes a huge problem for servicing the insane national debt US built up.
I also expect that this is the end of siege warfare US has been able to use so effectively via sanctions. US no longer has the ability to coerce countries through economic violence.
There was a deal which Borris Johnson rushed to Ukraine to torpedo.