By Mike WHITNEY “Here’s something you must understand. We were not given any opportunity to act differently.” Vladimir Putin The plan to engage Russia militarily…
It has certainly led to a mixed board outcome. It hasn’t been a total bust for the US and western capital though.
In the short-term it’s reinforced European dependency on NATO and the US empire which is bad as it has strengthened that alliance of reaction and Nazism.
In the medium-term it seems to have destroyed US dollar hegemony and power as countries are finally moving away from it now that they have a real chance and a real example of what could happen if they don’t which is of course a great outcome.
In the short-medium-term it has resulted in a de-industrialization of Europe with some going to the US and thus a benefit as their European vassals were beginning to buck them on China and other issues. It’s a reverse Marshall Plan where Europe pays to prop up the declining US empire. Though as Europe has moved some to China it may weaken their position when the time comes for the US to push the Taiwan issue into open conflict and cause Europe to sit by more than it otherwise would (though who knows, these European liberals and their brains are so colonized by liberalism and white supremacy that they might cut off their own legs to spit in the face of the Chinese and “stand up for democracy” as the Ukraine situation has demonstrated). Certainly seems their national industrial bourgeois are fully restrained and subordinated to the trans-atlantic international bourgeois
The times ahead will certainly be interesting as long as Russia pulls out a win (defined as keeping the territories they’ve legally absorbed including Crimea and a lasting cessation of hostilities against Russia and those territories). Very dangerous too, quite a bit of chaos and quite a bit of ways things will go.
The US won’t take countries bucking dollar hegemony and their control lightly, once the conflict does end I suspect attempts at a round of color revolutions for “democracy” in certain regions as well as palace/military coups where that can be attempted. A circling of the ideological wagons, frantic crying and screaming about “values” towards BRICS, Africa, etc, dehumanization of those regions and areas in media should moves to bring them back as vassals fail.
Though if Russia loses things could look differently, countries currently de-dollarizing might put on a quick smile and toss that out the window out of fear of a victorious west at which point the US will have pulled out a win-win-win (win1 de-industrialize Europe, suck it for money like a vampire by selling them overpriced gas, etc, win2 humiliate Russia, weaken their presence internationally with a loss, win3 rev up the fascism machine at home and abroad, dehumanizing sentiment successfully manufactured, consent and demand for NATO increased, leash on Europe tighter than ever, populace at home whipped into a confidence frenzy they can win against China).
Luckily this does seem to be an existential issue for Russia so an outright win anytime soon seems unlikely. If anything nuclear war seems the most likely bad out-come with Russia refusing to back down, the west desperate and suffering gambler’s fallacy, in too deep to want to pull out and go home, the west offering up advanced current/next-gen weapons systems to Ukraine complete with NATO personnel operating them that Russia knows about, Russia being forced to use nuclear weapons and things spiraling from there. Scarily plausible and many liberals would cheer it.
I generally agree with the assessment. There are some short term gains for US from all this, but the long term trends will favor a multipolar world and decrease of western influence over the world.
I think the idea that Russia could lose a conventional war in Ukraine is frankly fantastical. Russia has a much better ironed out military industrial base, it has all the resources it needs, and the society in Russia is broadly unified in support for the war. People understand that this is a conflict between Russia and NATO, they remember what’s been done to them back in the 90s, and they don’t want a repeat of that.
On the other hand, NATO is a hodgepodge of different vassals governed by US. All of them are competing with each other and have many animosities towards one another. US is the only nation in the alliance with any serious military industrial capacity, and it’s currently failing to provide sufficient material support for the proxy war.
On top of all that, the west is now on the hook for propping up the entire Ukrainian economy as well as the military. The war is costing billions each month, and it’s coming at the expense of the standard of living of the people in western countries. While Russians understand why there may be hardships, it’s far less clear to people in the west who don’t see this conflict as existential for them.
Hmm very interesting times indeed, but I am left wondering, what is Turkey’s position in this? I would assume when the war escalates more Turkey would put itself before American interests. How would that affect NATO, with one of it’s strongest armies going its own way?
Has anyone got a detailed analysis of Turkey’s Geopolitical position?
What about the blowback of Nazi terrorism in Europe. Any potential revolutions (not necessarily ML, just an ousting of US puppets) in the EU? Greece?
Would the anti-imperialist push in the periphery force the US to move outta Ukraine?
If Russia wins, will some parts of Europe accept to realign with Russian interests instead of American?
Turkey is angling for the best deals for itself. It’s spitting in the face of the west but not willing to leave the west/NATO either. It’s basically playing hard to get and probably wants to curry some long-term favor with Russia so may even keep Sweden out of NATO permanently among other things but they can’t control most of what’s happening.
NATO forces en mass, that is in organized groups, regiments, etc are not going to be sent into Ukraine. They do send special forces, intel operators, etc and have been for some time and will continue to do so but the fact is they already have a large base of canon fodder in the ability to conscript Ukrainians and the utter willingness to throw as many of them into the horror and death as possible to kill a few more Russians and cost the Russians a few more tens of millions in missiles.
What about the blowback of Nazi terrorism in Europe.
Gladio 2.0 is what it is. They disappeared tons of weapons under the guise of corruption by the Ukrainians (some of that definitely happened to) which are unaccountable and can be used in reactionary/fascist terror attacks in future. This is to keep Europe in line with regards to China, to keep socialists out of power and to keep anti-imperialists out of power.
Would the anti-imperialist push in the periphery force the US to move outta Ukraine?
The US will slow or stop what it’s doing in Ukraine when it deems it no longer beneficial and a detriment. They have the sunk cost situation, don’t forget that, plus the true believers who started all this don’t want egg on their face so they have no choice but to double down and try and convince everyone just a few more months and Russia will be out of ammo or the Ukrainians will rally back or whatever.
If Russia wins, will some parts of Europe accept to realign with Russian interests instead of American?
See about the blowback as mentioned above, insurance I think against that kind of thing. Not only are they spreading Ukrainian neo-Nazis around who will scatter in greater numbers into Europe in event of a loss, but they’re spreading the ideology, lots of liberals getting on-board and consider Russians subhumans now so would be rather pissed off for their government to go back to business as usual. 5 years after the conflict it’s hard to say if things change but in the immediate aftermath I don’t think so.
Both sides are trying to bleed one another so Russia I don’t think is going to have some big push that ends the war in 2 months from now. On the other hand with weapons and stuff trickling in and letting the Russians pick them off rather than massing up for an effective counter-attack the west isn’t exactly setting Ukraine up for success either. They seem to want to just keep this thing burning.
It has certainly led to a mixed board outcome. It hasn’t been a total bust for the US and western capital though.
In the short-term it’s reinforced European dependency on NATO and the US empire which is bad as it has strengthened that alliance of reaction and Nazism.
In the medium-term it seems to have destroyed US dollar hegemony and power as countries are finally moving away from it now that they have a real chance and a real example of what could happen if they don’t which is of course a great outcome.
In the short-medium-term it has resulted in a de-industrialization of Europe with some going to the US and thus a benefit as their European vassals were beginning to buck them on China and other issues. It’s a reverse Marshall Plan where Europe pays to prop up the declining US empire. Though as Europe has moved some to China it may weaken their position when the time comes for the US to push the Taiwan issue into open conflict and cause Europe to sit by more than it otherwise would (though who knows, these European liberals and their brains are so colonized by liberalism and white supremacy that they might cut off their own legs to spit in the face of the Chinese and “stand up for democracy” as the Ukraine situation has demonstrated). Certainly seems their national industrial bourgeois are fully restrained and subordinated to the trans-atlantic international bourgeois
The times ahead will certainly be interesting as long as Russia pulls out a win (defined as keeping the territories they’ve legally absorbed including Crimea and a lasting cessation of hostilities against Russia and those territories). Very dangerous too, quite a bit of chaos and quite a bit of ways things will go.
The US won’t take countries bucking dollar hegemony and their control lightly, once the conflict does end I suspect attempts at a round of color revolutions for “democracy” in certain regions as well as palace/military coups where that can be attempted. A circling of the ideological wagons, frantic crying and screaming about “values” towards BRICS, Africa, etc, dehumanization of those regions and areas in media should moves to bring them back as vassals fail.
Though if Russia loses things could look differently, countries currently de-dollarizing might put on a quick smile and toss that out the window out of fear of a victorious west at which point the US will have pulled out a win-win-win (win1 de-industrialize Europe, suck it for money like a vampire by selling them overpriced gas, etc, win2 humiliate Russia, weaken their presence internationally with a loss, win3 rev up the fascism machine at home and abroad, dehumanizing sentiment successfully manufactured, consent and demand for NATO increased, leash on Europe tighter than ever, populace at home whipped into a confidence frenzy they can win against China).
Luckily this does seem to be an existential issue for Russia so an outright win anytime soon seems unlikely. If anything nuclear war seems the most likely bad out-come with Russia refusing to back down, the west desperate and suffering gambler’s fallacy, in too deep to want to pull out and go home, the west offering up advanced current/next-gen weapons systems to Ukraine complete with NATO personnel operating them that Russia knows about, Russia being forced to use nuclear weapons and things spiraling from there. Scarily plausible and many liberals would cheer it.
I generally agree with the assessment. There are some short term gains for US from all this, but the long term trends will favor a multipolar world and decrease of western influence over the world.
I think the idea that Russia could lose a conventional war in Ukraine is frankly fantastical. Russia has a much better ironed out military industrial base, it has all the resources it needs, and the society in Russia is broadly unified in support for the war. People understand that this is a conflict between Russia and NATO, they remember what’s been done to them back in the 90s, and they don’t want a repeat of that.
On the other hand, NATO is a hodgepodge of different vassals governed by US. All of them are competing with each other and have many animosities towards one another. US is the only nation in the alliance with any serious military industrial capacity, and it’s currently failing to provide sufficient material support for the proxy war.
On top of all that, the west is now on the hook for propping up the entire Ukrainian economy as well as the military. The war is costing billions each month, and it’s coming at the expense of the standard of living of the people in western countries. While Russians understand why there may be hardships, it’s far less clear to people in the west who don’t see this conflict as existential for them.
Hmm very interesting times indeed, but I am left wondering, what is Turkey’s position in this? I would assume when the war escalates more Turkey would put itself before American interests. How would that affect NATO, with one of it’s strongest armies going its own way?
Has anyone got a detailed analysis of Turkey’s Geopolitical position?
What about the blowback of Nazi terrorism in Europe. Any potential revolutions (not necessarily ML, just an ousting of US puppets) in the EU? Greece?
Would the anti-imperialist push in the periphery force the US to move outta Ukraine?
If Russia wins, will some parts of Europe accept to realign with Russian interests instead of American?
Turkey is angling for the best deals for itself. It’s spitting in the face of the west but not willing to leave the west/NATO either. It’s basically playing hard to get and probably wants to curry some long-term favor with Russia so may even keep Sweden out of NATO permanently among other things but they can’t control most of what’s happening.
NATO forces en mass, that is in organized groups, regiments, etc are not going to be sent into Ukraine. They do send special forces, intel operators, etc and have been for some time and will continue to do so but the fact is they already have a large base of canon fodder in the ability to conscript Ukrainians and the utter willingness to throw as many of them into the horror and death as possible to kill a few more Russians and cost the Russians a few more tens of millions in missiles.
Gladio 2.0 is what it is. They disappeared tons of weapons under the guise of corruption by the Ukrainians (some of that definitely happened to) which are unaccountable and can be used in reactionary/fascist terror attacks in future. This is to keep Europe in line with regards to China, to keep socialists out of power and to keep anti-imperialists out of power.
The US will slow or stop what it’s doing in Ukraine when it deems it no longer beneficial and a detriment. They have the sunk cost situation, don’t forget that, plus the true believers who started all this don’t want egg on their face so they have no choice but to double down and try and convince everyone just a few more months and Russia will be out of ammo or the Ukrainians will rally back or whatever.
See about the blowback as mentioned above, insurance I think against that kind of thing. Not only are they spreading Ukrainian neo-Nazis around who will scatter in greater numbers into Europe in event of a loss, but they’re spreading the ideology, lots of liberals getting on-board and consider Russians subhumans now so would be rather pissed off for their government to go back to business as usual. 5 years after the conflict it’s hard to say if things change but in the immediate aftermath I don’t think so.
Both sides are trying to bleed one another so Russia I don’t think is going to have some big push that ends the war in 2 months from now. On the other hand with weapons and stuff trickling in and letting the Russians pick them off rather than massing up for an effective counter-attack the west isn’t exactly setting Ukraine up for success either. They seem to want to just keep this thing burning.
Valuable analysis and answers, appreciated comrade!!