The safe bet is on a climate catastrophe which will even further sharpen the contradictions facing the imperialist system. My question is: will that be just another drop in an almost overflowing bucket, or the straw that broke the camel’s back?

That remains to be seen, but at the moment the indoctrination that the population of the imperial core has been subjected to makes it so that their pain threshold may in fact be higher than many of us would expect. It’s not just the material conditions that contribute to the people of the global south having vastly more revolutionary potential than those of the imperial core, it’s also the existence and prominence of deeply reactionary ideologies and forms of false consciousness (chauvinism, exceptionalism, etc.) in the imperial core that serve as a very effective immunization against the formation of revolutionary movements. Revolutionary energy is effectively redirected and dissipated, first into the false promises of reformism and social democracy, and then when that inevitably fails into brutal, naked fascism. The control over the narrative through the media and other institutions is also much stronger in the core than in the periphery, and falsifications of history much more deeply embedded into the collective unconscious.