Reddit is losing its mind over Ukraine victories. Is russia losing? Whats next for this war?

  • @Danann
    link
    72 years ago

    UAF advanced into territory abandoned by RuAF. The units up there were most likely shifted to the Donbass front or taken off the line for rest and refit. This leaves a relatively small force to hold the line and it has contracted in the face of UAF advances to where it is now:

    However, this has only resulted in the UAF taking territory north towards the border and stopping for the most part on the Siverskiy Donets river. In other words, the most that was accomplished was definitively securing most of Kharkiv from RuAF artillery fire. In exchange, now the UAF must defend territory that does not offer them the benefit of hiding in cities (cover and human shields).

    Here’s a railroad map of Ukraine as to why taking territory the RuAF did not fight for was useless:

    See that blue line east of Kharkiv and far away from UAF front lines? That’s a railroad line that operates free of UAF fires. There is that green line from Belgorod but most likely it’s something that’s nice to have from the RuAF perspective but not necessary compared to the thick blue line heading down towards Kupyansk from Valuyki. It does show the weakness of the RuAF in that it has less mass in general compared to the UAF and that choosing to preserve military force will by necessity mean abandoning people now.

    Speaking of railroads, there’s that mass of railroad lines in Donbass. It’s something that’s just as, if nor more, valuable as the UAF forces holed up there along with the people and land of the LDPR. This infrastructure can easily fuel the RuAF advance across the rest of Ukraine east of the Dneiper if/when it is captured.